SAIGONNEZUMICrackdown against Bloggers in Vietnam - A Glimpse into Vietnam's Future?
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Well, crackdown is probably a bit of a harsh word to use know but there definitely is something happening against Vietnamese bloggers in Vietnam. Local Vietnamese media sources are allowed to tell their readership that a couple bloggers have been arrested so we know, officially, that Vietnamese bloggers are being arrested. This would have been unheard of just 6 years ago when I arrived to Vietnam.
The arrests seem stemmed from bloggers giving critical remarks about certain Vietnamese government officials. This is not surprising since next January, the General Assembly will meet to choose the next Prime Minister and President. This will be the most heated selection process ever for the current Communist Party regime in Vietnam. Rumors are still flying around that two key factions within the Communist Party are fighting for control to replace the current Prime Minister, Nguyen Tan Dung. The Minister of Defence, General Phùng Quang Thanh, and the Minister of Finance, Vu Van Ninh, are both vying to become the next Prime Minister of Vietnam. General Phung Quang Thanh is said to be pro-American thus his selection could open the doors of a US military presence, possibly with bases, in Vietnam. If General Phung Quang Thanh is pro-American, then that might lead to suggestions that Vu Van Ninh might possibly be pro-China.
Either way, all government officials and politicians involved in the process want to keep a clean slate if they want an influential part with the Communist Party in the next 5 years. Hence any criticism about their current or past actions will clearly be met with swift response especially in a country where a small amount of "gossiping" can have a strong effect on the country.
Ly Nguyen Huong Tra was arrested for accusing a certain Vietnamese government official in giving favors to a Miss Vietnam pageant and "others" since they were his son's lovers. Definitely huge political implications especially if this government official is given a key government position in 2011. If the accusations are true, well, his chances of being promoted will be slim. Better to use his connections now and get the blogger arrested quietly. It did not work and since the story was allowed to be published by Vietnamese media sources, it gives an impression that many within the Communist Party are not happy as well. Blogger Ly Nguyen Huong Tra has allies within the Party.
Another Vietnamese blogger, Van Thanh Hai, was arrested for criticizing the maritime disputes and bauxite mining project with China. Blogger Dieu Cay was arrested nearly 3 years ago also criticizing China's policies. There are definitely sensitive issues for the Vietnamese government since they are now forced to deal with an ever reasserting China to the north. A faction within the Vietnamese Communist Party that would rather appease China would not want any criticism of it's projects and dealings with the People's Republic of China. Any conflict of any type with China could destabilize Vietnam and possibly result in regime change ending the reigns of the Communist Party. They can't have that so it is better to arrest bloggers like Van Thanh Hai and keep him quiet. Unfortunately, it seems that both bloggers also have some allies within the Party.
Vietnam is clearly changing paths as it arrives to the next General Assembly in January. Vietnamese bloggers are having an influence on the minds of the Vietnamese people. Their arrests demonstrate that and you will probably see more and more arrests of bloggers as Vietnam gets closer to January. The filtering, censoring, banning, etc., of websites, blogs, and other news sources may seem that the Vietnamese government has failed to control the Internet in Vietnam. I would argue that different government officials have also allowed the continued access to these sites as a means to weaken their opponents. Over 6 years ago, Vietnam was great at banning access to a large majority of websites, you can't tell me they do not have the capability to do it now.
For me, I think we are seeing the glimpse of Vietnam's future.